There is a region known as the wine belt. It was considered suitable for wine grape cultivation, spanning roughly 30–50°N and 30–40°S latitude. The Rheingau in Germany sits at 50°N. This region was long regarded as the northern limit of viticulture. That designation, however, is now being called into question. The fact that cultivation areas are shifting northward is already widely known. What has not been fully addressed, though, is what is actually happening beyond that shift.
Research published between 2024 and 2026 presents a different picture of how far this northward expansion of viticulture has actually progressed.
From Latitude to a Combination of Indices
The older approach — using latitude alone, expressed as degrees north or south — no longer functions as a workable basis for site suitability assessment. Current research goes beyond simple temperature trend data, combining multiple indices such as growing-season heat accumulation, frost risk, and extreme heat days to classify regional climate conditions in finer detail.
A study published in 2026 uses a method called climate analogue analysis. This approach maps the future climate of a given region onto the current climate of another region it is projected to resemble. Its distinguishing feature is that it evaluates multiple indices simultaneously — not only temperature increase, but also disease susceptibility.
Conditions for Improved Suitability
A large-scale review published in 2024 assessed future suitability changes across 72 traditional wine regions worldwide. Under a scenario in which warming is held below 2°C, suitability improves in 18 regions, while 54 regions face some form of risk, 35 of them at moderate risk or higher. Northern Europe — north of 46°N and along the Atlantic coast — is said to benefit from warming, but this assessment carries the qualifier “at least under limited temperature increases.” Beyond 2°C of warming, the number of regions showing improved suitability is roughly halved compared with the sub-2°C scenario.
In interviews accompanying the paper’s release, the lead author pointed to Germany as one example where cultivation of its flagship variety, Riesling, could face difficulty. As deviation from the optimal temperature range for cultivation occurs, wines tied to a specific regional name are often not easily transferable to other varieties. This points to an aspect the simple formula “moving north makes things easier” fails to capture.
That said, Germany’s Riesling plantings have so far remained at a consistently high level. In recent years, plantings of varieties that were previously almost absent in Germany — Chardonnay among them — have expanded rapidly. As the land suited to viticulture shifts northward, the land itself does not move; instead, new varieties move into it, changing the character of the region.
The Overlooked Barrier
The statement that grape-growing regions are moving further north than before carries two distinct meanings.
One is that existing regions, unable to withstand the effects of warming, relocate to cooler areas further north. The other is that new areas — land where grapes were not previously cultivated — are planted for the first time. The former can also be understood as a shift of varieties within an existing region, while the latter should be understood within the framework of new-region development.
According to the 2026 study mentioned above, one of the key factors to consider in northward expansion is disease pressure. Looking at temperature alone, northern Europe becomes climatically suitable. But once the conditions for downy mildew are factored in, the picture changes considerably.
Emerging northern regions currently have low temperatures, and downy mildew infection risk remains low outside a few areas. The Atlantic coast of the north, in particular, is humid, and conditions favorable for infection are expected to align as temperatures rise. Under the scenario currently considered to involve the most warming, disease pressure in these emerging northern regions is projected to reach, by 2080, a level comparable to that of southwestern France, including Bordeaux — currently the region with the highest disease pressure in Europe.
New regions will, before too long, face disease pressure no different from that of existing regions. Choosing a site based on the current gap in disease pressure offers only a temporary reprieve.
In an era of stable temperatures, disease pressure was also treated as roughly fixed for each region. That assumption, however, is beginning to break down even in existing regions. In parts of Burgundy, Champagne, and Germany, the number of days favorable to both downy and powdery mildew is projected to increase by roughly 15% by 2080. In Spain, central Italy, and eastern Europe, by contrast, reduced rainfall is expected to lower disease pressure with respect to downy mildew.
The situation differs, however, when it comes to relocating an existing region northward rather than developing new land. For regions such as Burgundy, Champagne, and Germany — where disease pressure has long been built into pest and disease management — a roughly 15% increase occurring on their own land is not a major problem.
Many existing regions are already exposed to high disease pressure. In Bordeaux, 90% of vineyards were affected by downy mildew in 2023, yet the region has continued to function as a wine region without interruption. For growers who have cultivated vines under such conditions, disease pressure is not a constraint on northward expansion. Moving to a new location simply means facing a level of disease pressure not substantially different from what they already know.
For a new region, this represents a change it will experience for the first time in decades to come. For an existing region relocating elsewhere, it is something already experienced.
Where the Northern Limit Stands Today
The current northern limit of viticulture now extends into Scandinavia. Looking at the actual figures, however, production remains small in scale. In Sweden, where the Scania region has become the center of wine production, there were, as of 2025, 50 commercial wineries, 230 hectares under cultivation, and 800,000 vines. NIBIO — the Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research — has established two experimental sites, in Ullensvang and Landvik, where it is trialing multiple varieties. Just over ten producers currently operate as viable businesses.
What stands out is the latitude of Ullensvang. It sits at roughly 60°N — some 10 degrees further north than the upper edge of what was once considered the wine belt.
The Shrinking of Southern European Regions
Behind the story of northward expansion, southern European regions face a risk of contraction. Roughly 90% of traditional wine regions located in low-lying, coastal areas of Spain, Italy, and Greece are assessed, in the 2024 review cited above, as facing a risk of disappearance by the end of this century. Even accounting for relocation to elevations up to 1,000 meters, less than 20% of this loss is expected to be offset.
The narrative that the northern limit of grape-growing regions is moving further north is the flip side of the same climate change driving contraction in the south.
A Region Still in Motion
Methods for assessing site suitability are shifting from a single index — latitude — toward an evaluation combining multiple climate indices with disease risk. This shift adds several qualifications to the simple formula “moving north avoids the effects of warming.” The benefits can reverse depending on the level of warming, and disease pressure introduces a new constraint of its own.
In land where heat accumulation requirements continue to be met and disease pressure stays within a range manageable through pest and disease control, viticulture continues even as varieties shift. Land falling outside either of these conditions, by contrast, becomes increasingly difficult to cultivate. The further northward advance of the northern limit takes two distinct forms: the relocation of existing regions and the development of new ones.
When a region is forced to relocate, what becomes of the people who grow grapes on both the old land and the new? Who takes on the work, and who steps away? And as the climate continues to change, how far north will the limit ultimately move?
The place that the term “northern limit” refers to will likely continue moving. But that movement will not be a straight line northward — it will need to be understood as a complex process shaped by the interplay of multiple factors.
